[Weekly Preview]In-Depth: The Harsh Reality of the Student Shortage: How Should Education Resources Be Reallocated? (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】深度：“学生荒”现实严峻 教育资源如何重新布局？

The number of applicants for the national college entrance examination in China has continually grown, surpassing 13 million this year. However, a "student shortage" is becoming evident during the compulsory education stage. This paradox stems from swift shifts in the school-age population, attributed mainly to declining birth rates following a temporary rise due to the two-child policy. Although many cities face challenges in enrolling primary school students due to earlier policy effects, a decline in the school-age population for compulsory education is anticipated in over half of the districts and counties nationwide starting this year. Research predicts that the school-age population will fall from its peak of approximately 328 million in 2021-2022 to around 250 million by 2035, a decrease of more than 78 million. This decline could result in a significant surplus of teachers in primary and middle schools by 2035[para. 1][para. 2][para. 3].

Rural areas are particularly affected, with many newly built schools becoming underutilized due to rapid population declines. "Sparrow schools" with very few students are becoming more common. Families often relocate their children to urban schools, facing high educational costs. Urban areas also face strain, although primarily due to concentrated demand in new districts and cities. However, a wave of school closures is expected to spread to urban areas over time. The National Education Work Conference has proposed "forward-looking planning" to address these demographic changes [para. 4][para. 5][para. 6].

Research highlights significant regional disparities in the changes of school-age populations. Central regions with large populations are experiencing the most considerable decline, with large-scale reductions in the number of students expected in provinces like Henan and Hebei. These declines are driven by population outflows and lower fertility rates. Conversely, areas like the eastern coastal regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou) are still seeing demand for schooling due to continued population influx. However, even in these areas, there's a shift toward intra-provincial, rather than inter-provincial, migration, changing the school-age population dynamics [para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11].

In regions previously experiencing the most strain, like the Northeast and Central China, significant declines in school populations are underway. For example, primary school student populations in Heilongjiang and Jilin are expected to decrease by 18-20% by 2027. In the central regions, Henan may see a drop of over 20% in primary school enrollments. The trend is similar in provinces like Hunan and Jiangxi, where rural student populations are declining rapidly. However, western provinces like Guangxi and Gansu experience these changes less severely due to their diverse and complex geography and socio-economic conditions[para. 12][para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 21].

Scientific planning in response to these demographic shifts is crucial. This entails detailed, region-specific analyses based on macro-level data, considering regional and provincial differences. Proper planning can prevent issues like excessive infrastructure and better manage the inflow and outflow of teachers. Field visits and interviews supplement research, providing a granular map of China’s educational demographic changes [para. 22][para. 23][para. 24][para. 25][para. 26][para. 27].

The restructuring of school layouts, required to adapt to these demographic changes, often focuses on closures, mergers, and the construction of boarding schools in townships and county seats to address the declining rural student populations. Rural families continue to push for urban education options, amplified by local governments’ strategies to leverage education to support property markets. However, this leads to concerns about the adequacy of quality education and long-term strain on urban facilities [para. 28][para. 29][para. 30][para. 31][para. 32].

Ultimately, while demographic declines pose significant challenges for educational planning and resource allocation across China's diverse regions, there's an ongoing effort to adjust strategies to maintain quality education standards and respond to shifting populations [para. 33][para. 34][para. 35][para. 36][para. 37][para. 38].