Jun 06, 2024 07:32 PM

Analysis: Why China’s Manufacturing PMIs Went in Different Directions in May

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The Caixin China manufacturing PMI registered 51.7 in May, but the official manufacturing PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 49.5. That marked the fifth instance of divergence in the past seven months — with the Caixin PMI in expansionary territory and the official one in contractionary territory.

(Editor’s note: The NBS’ manufacturing PMI is compiled based on a survey of purchasing managers at 3,200 companies in 31 manufacturing industries. The survey has a greater representation of large companies and state-owned enterprises.

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The Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.7 in May, indicating expansion, while the official NBS PMI was 49.5, indicating contraction.
The Caixin PMI has shown expansion for seven consecutive months, whereas the NBS PMI reflected contraction five times in the same period.
Divergences are attributed to differences in demand, survey sample composition, and sector performance.

AI generated, for reference only

What Happened When

From November 2023 to May 2024：: The Caixin PMI remained in expansionary territory for seven consecutive months.

March and April 2024：: New export orders in the official PMI survey grew.

March and April 2024：: Both PMIs for small and midsize enterprises managed to enter expansionary territory.

April 2024：: The gauge for new export orders in the Caixin PMI survey hit the highest in more than three years.

Past seven months (Before May 2024)：: Activity in the basic raw materials manufacturing sector continued to contract, with an average PMI reading of 48.1.

Past seven months (Before May 2024)：: The average PMI reading for the equipment manufacturing sector was 50.7 and that of the consumer goods manufacturing segment was 50.2.

Past 13 months (As of May 2024)：: The NBS PMI for large manufacturers has been in positive territory or at the threshold.

May 2024：: The Caixin China manufacturing PMI registered 51.7, while the official manufacturing PMI published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 49.5.